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Daniel Kokotajlo
Former OpenAI governance researcher who resigned in 2024 over its handling of AGI risk and now leads the AI Futures Project, whose scenarios AI 2027 and AI 2040 warn superintelligence is near and urge an international deal to delay it.
Roles
- 2022 – Apr 2024Researcher, governance team, OpenAIResigned in April 2024 and declined to sign a non-disparagement clause, forfeiting vested equity.Source →
- Oct 2024 – presentExecutive Director, AI Futures ProjectNonprofit forecasting organization in Berkeley, California; published AI 2027 (April 2025) and AI 2040: Plan A (July 2026).Source →
On the record
9 Jul 2026 · Paper · AI Futures Project
the least bad plan we currently know of
Executive Director, AI Futures Project at the time
A recommendation, not a prediction, that the US and China act to delay superintelligence to 2040 instead of the roughly 2030 arrival the group expects by default.
Jul 2026 · Podcast · 80,000 Hours Podcast
The trends seem to indicate that we're just a couple years away from fully automating AI research — and that after that, superintelligence is probably not that far away.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project at the time
Recorded 27–28 July 2026.
27 Jan 2026 · Post · AI Futures Project blog
Things seem to be going somewhat slower than the AI 2027 scenario. Our timelines were longer than 2027 when we published and now they are a bit longer still; 'around 2030, lots of uncertainty though' is what I say these days.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project at the time
Co-written with Eli Lifland and Brendan Halstead; gives his AGI median as December 2030.
Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027 →
3 Apr 2025 · Paper · AI Futures Project
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project at the time
Scenario forecast co-authored with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean.
Apr 2024 · Post · LessWrong
Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI.
Researcher, governance team, OpenAI at the time
His profile bio, written on leaving OpenAI; in a May 2024 comment he added that he refused the exit paperwork because he "wanted to retain my ability to criticize the company in the future" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kovCotfpTFWFXaxwi/simeon_c-s-shortform).