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Daniel Kokotajlo
Ancien chercheur en gouvernance chez OpenAI, démissionnaire en 2024 pour la manière dont l’entreprise traitait le risque lié à l’AGI, il dirige aujourd’hui l’AI Futures Project, dont les scénarios AI 2027 et AI 2040 avertissent que la superintelligence est proche et appellent à un accord international pour la retarder.
Fonctions
- 2022 – avr. 2024Researcher, governance team, OpenAIResigned in April 2024 and declined to sign a non-disparagement clause, forfeiting vested equity.Source →
- oct. 2024 – aujourd’huiExecutive Director, AI Futures ProjectNonprofit forecasting organization in Berkeley, California; published AI 2027 (April 2025) and AI 2040: Plan A (July 2026).Source →
Au registre
9 juil. 2026 · Article scientifique · AI Futures Project
the least bad plan we currently know of
Executive Director, AI Futures Project à l’époque
A recommendation, not a prediction, that the US and China act to delay superintelligence to 2040 instead of the roughly 2030 arrival the group expects by default.
juil. 2026 · Podcast · 80,000 Hours Podcast
The trends seem to indicate that we're just a couple years away from fully automating AI research — and that after that, superintelligence is probably not that far away.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project à l’époque
Recorded 27–28 July 2026.
27 janv. 2026 · Publication · AI Futures Project blog
Things seem to be going somewhat slower than the AI 2027 scenario. Our timelines were longer than 2027 when we published and now they are a bit longer still; 'around 2030, lots of uncertainty though' is what I say these days.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project à l’époque
Co-written with Eli Lifland and Brendan Halstead; gives his AGI median as December 2030.
Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027 →
3 avr. 2025 · Article scientifique · AI Futures Project
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project à l’époque
Scenario forecast co-authored with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean.
avr. 2024 · Publication · LessWrong
Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI.
Researcher, governance team, OpenAI à l’époque
His profile bio, written on leaving OpenAI; in a May 2024 comment he added that he refused the exit paperwork because he "wanted to retain my ability to criticize the company in the future" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kovCotfpTFWFXaxwi/simeon_c-s-shortform).