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Daniel Kokotajlo
Ehemaliger Governance-Forscher bei OpenAI, der 2024 wegen des Umgangs des Unternehmens mit dem AGI-Risiko kündigte und heute das AI Futures Project leitet, dessen Szenarien AI 2027 und AI 2040 warnen, Superintelligenz sei nah, und ein internationales Abkommen zu ihrer Verzögerung fordern.
Rollen
- 2022 – Apr. 2024Researcher, governance team, OpenAIResigned in April 2024 and declined to sign a non-disparagement clause, forfeiting vested equity.Quelle →
- Okt. 2024 – heuteExecutive Director, AI Futures ProjectNonprofit forecasting organization in Berkeley, California; published AI 2027 (April 2025) and AI 2040: Plan A (July 2026).Quelle →
Im Verzeichnis
9. Juli 2026 · Fachartikel · AI Futures Project
the least bad plan we currently know of
Executive Director, AI Futures Project zu jener Zeit
A recommendation, not a prediction, that the US and China act to delay superintelligence to 2040 instead of the roughly 2030 arrival the group expects by default.
Juli 2026 · Podcast · 80,000 Hours Podcast
The trends seem to indicate that we're just a couple years away from fully automating AI research — and that after that, superintelligence is probably not that far away.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project zu jener Zeit
Recorded 27–28 July 2026.
27. Jan. 2026 · Beitrag · AI Futures Project blog
Things seem to be going somewhat slower than the AI 2027 scenario. Our timelines were longer than 2027 when we published and now they are a bit longer still; 'around 2030, lots of uncertainty though' is what I say these days.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project zu jener Zeit
Co-written with Eli Lifland and Brendan Halstead; gives his AGI median as December 2030.
Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027 →
3. Apr. 2025 · Fachartikel · AI Futures Project
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Executive Director, AI Futures Project zu jener Zeit
Scenario forecast co-authored with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean.
Apr. 2024 · Beitrag · LessWrong
Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI.
Researcher, governance team, OpenAI zu jener Zeit
His profile bio, written on leaving OpenAI; in a May 2024 comment he added that he refused the exit paperwork because he "wanted to retain my ability to criticize the company in the future" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kovCotfpTFWFXaxwi/simeon_c-s-shortform).